Iran prepares to strike Israel

Although the data collected only indicates troop movements within Iran, the risk tolerance threshold of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has become significantly lower since the surprise Hamas invasion on October 7, 2023.

One of Axios' sources said that Israeli intelligence had expressed similar concerns six weeks ago after detecting the movement of Iranian missiles. But this did not lead to any consequences.

“The chances of an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but no one is willing to take the risk and simply say that these are just exercises,” one Israeli source said.

US intelligence has no indication yet that an Iranian attack is imminent.

Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir called US Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper on Saturday and told him that Israel was concerned about missile exercises that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began several days ago.

According to them, Zamir told Cooper that the latest movements of Iranian missiles and other operational steps could be a cover for a surprise attack. Zamir called on American and Israeli forces to closely coordinate their actions in preparing their defenses.

Cooper was in Tel Aviv on Sunday, where he met with Zamir and senior IDF officials to discuss the situation.

The greatest threat is a war between Israel and Iran as a result of miscalculation, with each side believing that the other is planning an attack and trying to preempt it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Trump on December 29 in Miami.

Netanyahu wants to discuss Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of another strike on Iran in 2026.

Israeli intelligence sees the first signs of a renewed buildup of Iran's missile capabilities with greater motivation than the Iranians had after the 12-day war in June.

Israeli sources also noted that at the end of the war, Iran was left with 1,500 missiles, down from 3,000, and 200 launchers, down from 400.

The Iranians have begun to take steps to rebuild their forces, but have not yet returned to the level they were at before the war.

Israeli military intelligence and Mossad do not believe that the pace of Iran's rebuilding requires military action in the next two to three months, the sources said, but they note that later this year the issue may become more pressing.

Photo: azerbaycan24.com.